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couldcausehumancasualtiesornot.”
ⓒKMA
KMA forecasters, who play such an important role,
work in poor conditions. Day and night shift work causes
fatigue. There is also considerable stress over whether the
forecast will be accurate. Even if the forecast is slightly
▲SupercomputuersNo.4thatKMAbroughtin2015.
wrong, there are many complaints. In fact, according
yearoftrialanderrorisneeded.”Also,theKIAPS(Korea
to a survey submitted by KMA, 57 percent of all KMA
InstituteofAtmosphericPredictionSystems)projectgroup
employeessaidtheydidnotwanttotakeforecastingtasks,
that developed KIM has been disbanded, and the KMA is
which is a key responsibility of the organization. KMA
managing the KIM currently. This has caused problems
employees answered that forecasting tasks cause physical
with the update technology. KIM is an independent and
and mental stress. Shriveled by criticism, forecasters tend
creative technology that Korean experts of KIAPS have
tomakeconservativepredictions(saferatherthanaccurate
worked on for nine years. Under these circumstances,
ones), and then the public is likely to take them as wrong
KIAPS official said that performance improvement could
forecastsagain.Inaddition,forecastersmusthaveexpertise
be slow if other experts, not KIM’s developers, are in
accumulated over a long period, but it is difficult to attain
chargeofthedevelopmentandresearchofKIM.Duetothe
this experience due to a cyclical work system that changes
complex characteristics of numerical forecast models, it is
positionsandregionseverytwoyears.
noteasyfornon-developerstoknowandhandlethesystem
betterthandevelopers.
Solution
Rapiddevelopmentofmeteorologicalequipment
andlackofexpertsinequipmentutilization
DataexchangeandAIdevelopmentwith
First of all, a large
neighboringcountries
Gonggam
national budget is
The difficulty of
Ilbo
needed to operate
weatherforecastingdue
ⓒHonam
ⓒWeekly
supercomputers,
toKorea’sgeographical
which are weather
characteristics can
equipment. To
be supplemented by
install a very large
actively accumulating
▲Weatherforecastersareconductingvideo
supercomputer, new
Korean climate data.
▲AresearchteamledbyProfessorHam.
conferences.
buildings needs
In order to increase
to be built, and maintenance costs are expensive. Also,
the forecast hit rate, weather observation facilities should
supercomputers have improved their performance by a
beinstalledatmorethan300locations,withaccuratedata
thousand times over the last ten years due to their rapid
accumulatedforatleast10years.Currently,however,there
development. Even if a country spends a lot of money to
are more than 50 years of accumulated weather data in
buy a supercomputer, it will lose a lot of money in a few
only14locationsacrossthecountry.Koreaneedstocollect
yearsbecauseitsvaluewillbeverylow.
more detailed data because of the slow accumulation of
However, the fundamental cause of the weather forecast
data among advanced countries. To achieve this goal,
inaccuracy is that weather equipment is developing so
cooperation in weather data with neighboring countries
fast and experts are not using the equipment properly. For
is also a way. Currently, South Korea, China and Japan
example, it is forecasters who complete weather forecasts
are exchanging and studying data such as fine dust and
byinterpretingweatherdatacalculatedbysupercomputers.
earthquakes under a project called the Joint Research
Park E-hyeong, a spokesman of KMA, said, “There are
Cooperative Program (JRCP). As such, we need diverse
times when errors in weather forecast data and actual
international cooperation to exchange weather data with
conditions occur. It is the role of forecasters to reduce and
neighboringcountriesandstudytoincreaseaccuracy.
compensatefortheseerrors.Wehaveaheavyresponsibility
Also, a bigger factor that undermines weather accuracy
for weather forecasts South Korea’s forecasters make
is climate change. As climate change is getting worse,
weatherforecastsfirstbydeterminingwhetherinaccuracies
weather data from the past are limited in predicting
21
OCTOBER 2020

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