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Cover Story
Problem
In the meantime,
Colorado
from 2011 to 2019,
about 70 people and
Reducingclimateaccuracy
in
Change
Korea is originally
a budget of about
News
a country with
80 billion won were
ⓒClimate
ⓒYonhap
narrow land and
invested to develop
complex terrain,
a Korean Integrated
so it is difficult
Model (KIM).
▲NumericalWeatherPredictionModel.
to forecast the
The use of foreign models is based on the disadvantages
weather accurately.
of spending on user fees, not reflecting the weather
On average, the
characteristics of our country, and the inconvenience
▲BanpoHangangParkinSeoulflooded
probability of the
of updating them. All parts of the model were made
duetotherainyseasononAug.6.
weatherforecastbeingrightisabout85percent.Therefore,
with Korea’s own technology, which was significant and
morethan40daysareincorrectlyforecastedinayear(365
expected to improve the accuracy of the forecast. The
days). The problem is that even 85 percent of the hits are
modelwentthroughtrialoperationfromspringof2019and
hard to get because of Korea’s climate conditions. In fact,
wasintroducedintheforecastfrom2020.
according to the Board of Audit and Inspection in Korea,
However, after the introduction of KIM, the accuracy of
in3,228(62percent)of5,193casesofpredictedrainbythe
theforecastofprecipitationhasdecreased.Itisbeingused
KMA for five years (2012-2016) it actually rained; and in
in parallel with UM to supplement KIM, which was in its
1965cases(38percent)itdidnotrain.Inaddition,incases
early days, and the accuracy of rainfall forecast was 67
where the KMA predicted that it would not rain, in 1,808
percentfromApriltoJuly13thisyear,downfromlastyear.
casestherewasrain.Theaveragehitrateofprecipitationis
only46percent.
Inadequateutilizationofmeteorologicalequipment
ArecentexampleoftheKMA’sweatherinaccuracyisthe
Weather prediction
ⓒKARI
rainyseasonofthissummerthatlasted54days.TheKMA
requires weather
forecasted rain of 50 to 100mm in Gwangju, Korea from
satellites that
Aug. 7 to 8. In fact, however, there was a lot of flooding
collect data and
damage in Gwangju during Aug. 7-8th, with a heavy rain
supercomputers
of 516mm. If the accuracy of the weather forecast by
that simulate based
the KMA decreases, the damage caused by the failure
on this data. But
to prepare for heat waves, heavy rain, and heavy snow is
these pieces of
significant. According to the central Disaster and Safety
weather equipment
▲COMS(communication,Ocean&
CountermeasuresHeadquartersandtheMinistryofInterior
h a v e s o m e
MeteorologicalSatellite)whichiscalled
CholliansatelliteofRepofKorea.
and Safety, the rainy season actually left 50 people dead
problems. Before
or missing, and caused more than 6,000 people to become
the 2000s, Korea received data every 30 minutes from
homeless.
the Japanese weather satellite Multi-Functional Transport
Satellite (MTSAT). This caused a series of errors in
weather forecasts in Korea if Japan’s weather forecasts
LackofNumericalWeatherPredictionModel
AccordingtotheBoardofAuditandInspectioninKorea’s
were not accurate. Then, in the 2000s, it began using the
2019 audit results report (the actual status of the project
Communication, Ocean&Meteorological Satellite (COMS)
to develop numerical forecast models), the Numerical
otherwiseknownastheCholliansatellite.COMSlaunched
Weather Prediction Model covers about 40 percent of the
in 2010 and had better analytical capabilities than Japan’s
tasks for accurate weather forecasts. This is an important
satellite. However, the 2017 Board of Audit and Inspection
part compared to other factors such as quality of weather
inKoreapointedoutthattheKMAfailedtoutilizeCOMS.
observation data (32 percent) and capacity of forecasters
This is because it launched COMS but failed to develop
(28percent).KoreausedamodeldevelopedinJapanbefore
softwaretoanalyzethesatellitedata.
2010, and used from 2010 UM (U.K. model) modified to
Also, before the 1990s, the KMA did not have
suittheKoreanweathersituation.
supercomputers. The KMA predicted the weather with a
19
OCTOBER 2020
Problem
In the meantime,
Colorado
from 2011 to 2019,
about 70 people and
Reducingclimateaccuracy
in
Change
Korea is originally
a budget of about
News
a country with
80 billion won were
ⓒClimate
ⓒYonhap
narrow land and
invested to develop
complex terrain,
a Korean Integrated
so it is difficult
Model (KIM).
▲NumericalWeatherPredictionModel.
to forecast the
The use of foreign models is based on the disadvantages
weather accurately.
of spending on user fees, not reflecting the weather
On average, the
characteristics of our country, and the inconvenience
▲BanpoHangangParkinSeoulflooded
probability of the
of updating them. All parts of the model were made
duetotherainyseasononAug.6.
weatherforecastbeingrightisabout85percent.Therefore,
with Korea’s own technology, which was significant and
morethan40daysareincorrectlyforecastedinayear(365
expected to improve the accuracy of the forecast. The
days). The problem is that even 85 percent of the hits are
modelwentthroughtrialoperationfromspringof2019and
hard to get because of Korea’s climate conditions. In fact,
wasintroducedintheforecastfrom2020.
according to the Board of Audit and Inspection in Korea,
However, after the introduction of KIM, the accuracy of
in3,228(62percent)of5,193casesofpredictedrainbythe
theforecastofprecipitationhasdecreased.Itisbeingused
KMA for five years (2012-2016) it actually rained; and in
in parallel with UM to supplement KIM, which was in its
1965cases(38percent)itdidnotrain.Inaddition,incases
early days, and the accuracy of rainfall forecast was 67
where the KMA predicted that it would not rain, in 1,808
percentfromApriltoJuly13thisyear,downfromlastyear.
casestherewasrain.Theaveragehitrateofprecipitationis
only46percent.
Inadequateutilizationofmeteorologicalequipment
ArecentexampleoftheKMA’sweatherinaccuracyisthe
Weather prediction
ⓒKARI
rainyseasonofthissummerthatlasted54days.TheKMA
requires weather
forecasted rain of 50 to 100mm in Gwangju, Korea from
satellites that
Aug. 7 to 8. In fact, however, there was a lot of flooding
collect data and
damage in Gwangju during Aug. 7-8th, with a heavy rain
supercomputers
of 516mm. If the accuracy of the weather forecast by
that simulate based
the KMA decreases, the damage caused by the failure
on this data. But
to prepare for heat waves, heavy rain, and heavy snow is
these pieces of
significant. According to the central Disaster and Safety
weather equipment
▲COMS(communication,Ocean&
CountermeasuresHeadquartersandtheMinistryofInterior
h a v e s o m e
MeteorologicalSatellite)whichiscalled
CholliansatelliteofRepofKorea.
and Safety, the rainy season actually left 50 people dead
problems. Before
or missing, and caused more than 6,000 people to become
the 2000s, Korea received data every 30 minutes from
homeless.
the Japanese weather satellite Multi-Functional Transport
Satellite (MTSAT). This caused a series of errors in
weather forecasts in Korea if Japan’s weather forecasts
LackofNumericalWeatherPredictionModel
AccordingtotheBoardofAuditandInspectioninKorea’s
were not accurate. Then, in the 2000s, it began using the
2019 audit results report (the actual status of the project
Communication, Ocean&Meteorological Satellite (COMS)
to develop numerical forecast models), the Numerical
otherwiseknownastheCholliansatellite.COMSlaunched
Weather Prediction Model covers about 40 percent of the
in 2010 and had better analytical capabilities than Japan’s
tasks for accurate weather forecasts. This is an important
satellite. However, the 2017 Board of Audit and Inspection
part compared to other factors such as quality of weather
inKoreapointedoutthattheKMAfailedtoutilizeCOMS.
observation data (32 percent) and capacity of forecasters
This is because it launched COMS but failed to develop
(28percent).KoreausedamodeldevelopedinJapanbefore
softwaretoanalyzethesatellitedata.
2010, and used from 2010 UM (U.K. model) modified to
Also, before the 1990s, the KMA did not have
suittheKoreanweathersituation.
supercomputers. The KMA predicted the weather with a
19
OCTOBER 2020
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